Current Market Comment November, 2009
Since February of 2009, I have told everyone who would listen that you will not make any meaningful profits until after July 24, 2009. I believed that the Bear market would end around that time, and so would the negative attitude that goes with a Bear market. We were right in the middle of a rally which started on March 9,2009, but I was right about the Bear Market not being over.
July 24 was the wrong date because I used US stockmarket data to make my projection. The US stockmarket only represents about 26% of the global stock values. When I use Gobal stockmarket data, the projected end to the Bear Market is December 31, 2009.
I do not believe that projection is correct either.The Bear Market which started in late 2007 has taken a detour. More people than usual stayedout of themarket during the decline. Their money sat on the sidelines waiting for the market to bottom. TehMArch 9, 2009 price was lower than the bottom in 2002 so everyone thought that was the end of the Bear Market and tip-toed back into the market. Others saw the rally which started on March 9, 2009 and thought it was the beginning of a new Bull market. As the market rose more investors jumped into the market.
I believe that the rally which started on March 9,2009 will fizzle about December31, 2009, and then bottom around May 2010. Brazil will bottom around July 2010m ans the global markets will bottom somewhere inbetween May andJuly 2010
I have stayed out of the market since January 18 2008. Yes I wish I had been clever enough to forsee that the current rally had legs because it would have been very profitable. However, I see no economic justification for that rally, except wishful thinking.